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Projet ANR FireCaster | UMR SPE 6134
Numerical Wildfire 2021
Numerical WildFire 2021. November 15 to 19. IESC Cargese
Is finished see book of abstract and Pictures here
Videos of talks available soon

  

WORKSHOP PRESENTATION

More frequent occurrence of large wildfire events is a major public safety concern, as is their possible increase with climate change. Advances across a broad range of scientific disciplines can help predict the outcomes, guide decision support, and therefore help to mitigate losses from large wildfires. 

The Numerical Wildfire 2021 workshop is specifically focused on this topic, gathering scientists to synthesize approaches that can provide pragmatic answers to current problems with tools that can be made available rapidly- i.e. within 1-2 years - to decision makers.

PROVISIONAL PROGRAM

Monday November 15 : Welcome and plumes

9-12 : Participant welcome - Coffee - Bedroom dispatch
13 - 14 - Lunch at site
14 - 16 - Resolving plumes and pollution. (Chair P.A. Santoni)

  • Benjamin Truchot (Ineris) - Modélisation du panache de particules de plomb issu de l'incendie de la cathédrale Notre-Dame
  • Roberta Baggio (CNRS SPE) - Investigation on fire plume simulation using meso scale atmospheric model
  • Alexis Coppalle (Coria) - Emission measurements of gases (CO, NOx, CH4, NMHT) and particles during combustion of several types of wood
  • Pierre Tulet (LAero) - Modélisation des circulations locales et de l'ennuagement sur relief - programme BIOMAIDO
  • Adam Kochanski (SJSU - USA) - Leveraging coupled fire atmosphere modeling for local-scale smoke simulations

16:15 - Roundtable - Numerical challenges in short term/field plume pollution forecast (P.A. Santoni)

Tuesday 16 : Models and codes

9 - 11 : Models, from fire behaviour to fire/atmosphere - (Chair J.H. Balbi)

  • Frédéric Allaire (Firecaster) -  Generation and calibration of wildfire simulation ensemble
  • Jean-Baptiste Filippi  - Balbi Jacque-Henri (Firecaster) - FireCaster code and API -
  • Adam Kochanski (SJSU - USA) - Operational assimilation of IR perimeters and satellite fire detections into a coupled fire-  atmosphere model  
  • Aurélien Costes (Cerfacs) - The coupled Blaze/MesoNH code

11 - 12 : Roundtable - Numerical challenges for coupled fire behaviour code (A.Kochanski )
12 - 16 : Lunch at site, free discussion and time off

16 - 18 : Forecasting fuel state, from surface to fuel models (Chair Y. Perez-Ramirez)

  • Yolanda Perez-Ramirez (Firecaster) - Parametrisation of the FireCaster Fuel Description System
  • Masson Valéry (CNRM - Météo-France) - An overview of SURFEX
  • Carmen Awad (Università di Corsica) - Test of a non-propagation criterion under no slope and calm wind conditions 
  • Vera Egorova (vera.egorova@unican.es) - Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for predicting the transition to chaos in wildfire propagation

18 - 19 : Roundtable - Numerical challenges in for high resolution fuel state estimation (V.Masson )

Wednesday 17 : Experiments and data


9 - 11 : Experiments and real fire data. From WUI to Megafire (Chair R. Paugam)

  • Clements Craig (SJSU USA) - Peeking inside megafire
  • Ronan Paugam (Polytechnic Catalunya - Spain) - Computing High Resolution Fire Behavior Metrics from Prescribed Burn using Handheld Airborne Thermal Camera Observations
  • Rui Salgado (University of Evora - Portugal) - Simulation of  Pedrógão Grande wildfire and atmospheric electricity
  • Karina Meerpoel-Pietri (Università di Corsica) - Examination of WFDS to model the burning of a reconstructed hedge at laboratory scale

11 - 12 : Roundtable - Towards a comprehensive experimental protocol (C. Clements)
12 - 16 : Lunch at site, free discussion and time off
16 - 18 : Model driven experiments and event reanalysis.   (Chair A. Costes)

  • Jean-Baptiste Filippi - (Firecaster) -  HD weather review of the 2017 fire season in Corsica
  • Aurélien Costes (Cerfacs) - A reanalysis of FF1 using Compressible Meso-NH
  • Francois Pimont (INRAE) - FF1 reanalysis using Firetec
  • Bruno Guillaume (Effectis) - How does FDS model simulate the vertical fire propagation in isolated trees under atmospheric conditions?
  • Carla Scarpa (CNR - Italia) - An overview of the wildfire regime at Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Sardinia

18 - 19 : Roundtable - Numerical benchmarks for plume and fire-atmosphere (A. Kochanski)


Thursday 18 : Uncertainty and Risk - Night : Social Event 

9 - 11 :  Mapping and forecasting fire danger, toward high resolution risk forecast (Chair A. Belgodère)

  • Liliana Del Giudice (CNR - Italia) - Methodology and results of fuel type and model mapping in the Italy-France Maritime cooperation area
  • Antoine Belgodère (Firecaster) - The Shape of the Marginal Cost of the Duration of a WildFire. An insight from simulations in Corsica
  • Frédéric Allaire (FireCaster) - Deriving hourly burn probabilities from simulation
  • Francois Pimont (INRAE) - Prediction of regional wildfire activity in the probabilistic Bayesian framework of Firelihood
  • Laura Serra (Universitat Girona - Spain) Different methodological approaches applied to wildfires

11 - 12 : Roundtable - Can we move from FWI for regional forecast (Chair A. Belgodère)
12 - 16 : Lunch at site, free discussion and time off
16 - 18 : Current trends in AI and weather danger forecasting (C.Paoli)

  • Laure Raynaud (Météo-France) - Overview of the Poesy Program
  • Jean-François Muzy (CNRS - Saphir) - Overview of the Saphir Program
  • Allaire Frédéric (Firecaster) - Neural network emulation of widfire simulation
  • Aniel Jardines (U.Madrid Spain) - Applying LSTM to High Resolution Numerical Weather Products for Convection Prediction
  • Nicolas Poiron-Guidoni (Università di Corsica) - Deep hierarchical reinforcement learning to manage the trade-off between sustainability and profitability in common pool resources systems

18 - 19 : Roundtable, Future Trends (C.Paoli)

Friday 19 : Review of existing tools and Decision support systems, exchange with practitioners.
 

9 - 11 :  Current tools explained and next generation wildfire Decision Support Systems  (Chair J.B. Filippi)

  • Clements Craig (SJSU USA) - A fire weather specialist in California 
  • Michele Salis (CNR - Italia) - Application of wildfire simulation modeling for wildfire risk assessment and management in Mediterranean areas
  • Francois Pimont (INRAE) - Prediction of regional wildfire activity in the probabilistic Bayesian framework of Firelihood
  • Mathieu Regimbeau / Romaric Cinotti (Météo-France)   -  Le système de prévision incendie opérationnel en France
  • Jean-Baptiste Filippi (Firecaster)  -  Resultats prototypes opérationnels Firecaster

11 - 12 : Roundtable with practitioners (in english et en Français)

12 - 16 : Lunch at site and airport shuttles

VENUE

IESC Cargese is located by the coast, one hour from Ajaccio Airport in Corsica.  https://iesc.universita.corsica

IESC is particularly suited to create exchange between researchers, with all participants sharing the same table, breakfast, evenings and lodging for almost a complete week in a scenic environment.

Numerical Wildfire will be strongly limited to 80 participants, but we expect 60 people to attend throughout the week.

For Inscriptions click here

 

CONFIRMED INVITED SPEAKERS 

Craig Clements,  San- José State University Fire Weather lab.

Adam Kochansky, San- José State University Fire Weather lab.

Michele Salis, National Research Council, 
CNR-IBE, Sassari, Italy

François Pimont (Inrae)

Frédéric Allaire (Inria - Sorbonne University)

Ronan Paugam (Polytech Catalunya)

Laura Serra  (universitad  Girona)

Laure Raynaud (CNRM)

Aniel JARDINES (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Romaric CInotti (Météo-France)

Matthieu Regimbeau (Météo-France)

  For Inscriptions click here

SCIENTIFIC BOARD (FIRECASTER Program members)

- Antoine Belgodère, (LISA, Corte)

- Jean Baptiste Filippi, (SPE, Corte)

- Christine Lac (CNRM, Toulouse)                                      

- Jean François Leon  (LA, Toulouse)                                                                    

- Vivien Mallet (INRIA, Paris)                      

- Mélanie Rochoux (CERFACS, Toulouse)

ORGANIZER

Antoine Belgodère

 Associate Professor 

 UMR LISA CNRS 

 Université de Corse

Jean Baptiste Filippi 

 Chargé de Recherche au CNRS 

 UMR SPE CNRS 

 Université de Corse

   

REGISTRATION

For Inscriptions click here

A 2 to 4 pages extended abstract (1000 to 2000 words) including a 300 words abstract must be sent to belgoder_a@univ-corse.fr (economics related) or filippi@univ-corse.fr (physics related)

- Authors are encouraged to send abstract as early as possible, deadline for the submission of abstract : October 15th, 2021 .

- Acceptance/Rejection : October 20th  2021 or earlier (hopefully one week after submission).

Additional information: http://firecaster.universita.corsica/

- No registration fees ! but participants must pay for their travel, food and lodging at IESC (limited shared and single rooms available on site).

The workshop is supported by the Bushfire initiative of the Australian-French Association for Research and Innovation (AFRAN) Inc.

 

Page mise à jour le 22/11/2021 par JEAN-BAPTISTE FILIPPI